Alona Lebedieva on the New Geopolitics: Allies Without Illusions
Alona Lebedieva
The conclusions of the President of the European Council, António Costa, following the informal meeting of EU leaders on January 22 are not merely a diplomatic reaffirmation of the transatlantic partnership. They represent an attempt to define the boundaries of what is acceptable in this new reality. Support for Denmark and Greenland, the emphasis on international law, and the cautiously positive reaction to the absence of new U.S. tariffs all send a clear signal: Europe is ready for cooperation, but not for coercion.
“The key phrase here is the EU’s readiness to defend its interests ‘if and when necessary.’ This is no longer the language of faith in an alliance, but the language of insurance against risks,” says Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian diversified industrial and investment group Aurum Group.
At the same time, the Pentagon is effectively stripping away illusions about the role of the United States as a universal security guarantor. The new National Defense Strategy clearly sets priorities: first and foremost, the United States itself and the Western Hemisphere. Europe and Russia are classified as ‘managed threats,’ and allies are directly encouraged to assume a greater share of responsibility for their own security. Rhetoric about “non-isolationism” does not change the substance: Washington is moving toward selective engagement and an explicit calculation of costs and benefits.
“Greenland is particularly revealing within this framework. It appears simultaneously in EU statements as an object of unconditional support for sovereignty and in U.S. strategy as a key territory for strategic access. The Arctic, logistics, resources, and military presence are no longer future scenarios but subjects of active bargaining. In effect, Greenland becomes a symbol of a new world in which even among allies, questions of control and influence are discussed without ideological embellishment,” Lebedieva notes.
Against this backdrop, Davos merely records what is already happening. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney formulates the new rule of international politics with striking clarity: if you are not at the table, you are on the menu. And Emmanuel Macron’s warning about a “world without rules” only underscores that old guarantees no longer function. Conditions are now set not by declarations, but by the capacity to pay, to defend, and to exert influence.
“Within this logic, Ukraine’s position changes fundamentally as well. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s statement about Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU on January 1, 2027 is important not because of the date, but because of the approach: membership is presented as an element of a peace plan and as a component of security, rather than as a gesture of solidarity. The fact that Volodymyr Zelenskyy openly describes European integration as part of security guarantees only reinforces this shift. Ukraine is no longer viewed as a burden on the system, but as an element of a new European calculation – military, political, and institutional,” Alona Lebedieva concludes.
In this process, Ukraine ceases to be a peripheral issue and becomes a test of the EU’s ability to act as a strategic actor. The question now is not whether Europe is ready for strategic autonomy, but whether it can formalize it in time before the next crisis once again changes the rules of the game.
Alona Lebedieva
Aurum Group
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